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| Success Of Ubiquitous Computing Predicted |
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posted by Editor on Monday October 22, @12:25PM
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This Computerworld editorial by a former Gartner Group research director predicts that Ubiquitous Computing will displace the PC on the desktop by 2005. These kinds of predictions can't be taken too seriously - after all, it is unlikely that the writer has a crystal ball that can see into the future. However, a high-profile editorial like this does have a fair amount of clout with IT managers, and its endorsement of the Ubiquitous Computing concept (defined somewhat incompletely in the article as "the ability to access useful digital content through a variety of digital information devices" - see here for a more accurate definition) will generate more interest in it from the business community, which could strengthen its development. More intriguingly, the editorial proposes a lifecycle for the adoption of new technology in which the prevailing standard is attacked by an initial wave of pseudo-challengers, but prevails because the challengers don't offer enough meaningful differentiation. Only after the standard re-emerges stronger than before, and appearing invincible, does a new and better technology emerge to displace the existing standard. Wishful thinking or history repeating itself?
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They have systems that can be installed so you can say "lights on", "temperature 79 degrees", etc. but it out of most people's budgets right now. Once the technology becomes cheaper, and more homes have it installed, then it will become ubiquitous. I may watch too much stark trek, but many of their interfaces seem to work well, a combination of touchscreens, voice command and portable devices. When we start implanting chips in our brains, I think we've gone too far. :)
-Mike
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